On-chain analyst Willy Woo forecasts that as the impact of halvings diminishes due to declining new Bitcoin supply, the market cycle could shift from the existing four-year cycle to the six- to eight-year short-term debt cycle seen in traditional financial markets.
Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently said on social media that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price-cycle structure has entered a long-term transition phase.
He explained that the Bitcoin market had historically formed a regular four-year cycle driven by the halving supply shock, which occurs approximately every four years. However, the impact of declining new supply on the market is gradually weakening. In fact, Bitcoin’s current annual new supply has fallen to about 0.8% of the total issuance and is expected to decline further to around 0.4% after additional halvings.
Accordingly, Woo analyzed that future Bitcoin price cycles are more likely to be influenced by the six- to eight-year short-term debt cycle—a macroeconomic factor in global traditional financial markets—than by the halving-driven endogenous four-year cycle. He added that the market may currently be in a transitional period marked by this structural change in the cycle.
Source: Willy Woo X (@woonomic)