BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a newsletter published on September 3 that financial market instability in France could lead to increased liquidity provision by the Federal Reserve through the U.S. repo market. On that basis, he set a year-end price target of $10,000 for Ethereum.
Hayes’s thesis follows this path: growing selling pressure on French government and bank bonds → reduced repo funding from European banks → higher U.S. Treasury financing costs and hedge-fund deleveraging → expanded repo provision by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In practice, the New York Fed’s Standing Repo Facility is operated as a tool to ease sharp increases in short-term money-market rates.
However, no separate valuation model was provided for the $10,000 ETH forecast. Hayes explained that the target is based on his core investment thesis—a macro scenario in which expanding dollar liquidity drives up the prices of risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.