Key Events in the Crypto Market This Week

Fed FOMC, U.S. PCE, GDP, ECB and BOJ rate decisions in focus… $13.4 billion in BTC and ETH options set to expire as another variable

※ All times are in GMT+0 (UTC)
※ Schedule: October 26–November 1, 2026

Tuesday, October 27 — U.S. durable goods orders and consumer confidence index; FOMC meeting begins

12:30 GMT: U.S. September durable goods orders are scheduled for release. The market expects a 1.4% increase from the previous month. As an indicator that can provide insight into the flow of corporate capital investment, orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft also warrant attention. If the figure comes in stronger than expected, it could confirm the resilience of the U.S. economy while raising expectations for additional Fed tightening.
14:00 GMT: The U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index for October is scheduled for release. The market expects 80.4, down from the previous reading of 81.9. If U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorates more sharply than expected, concerns about an economic slowdown could intensify. Conversely, if consumer sentiment remains strong, it could support higher U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
October 27–28~~: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet. In September, the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75~~4.00%. The key issues at this meeting are whether to raise rates further and the future direction of monetary policy. The Fed is currently in the blackout period ahead of the FOMC, limiting public remarks on monetary policy by senior officials.
October 27–29: [Ripple Swell 2026] is scheduled to take place in New York, U.S. This year, it will be held jointly with Apex, an XRP Ledger developer event, and is expected to bring together more than 1,500 participants and over 100 speakers. Key topics include stablecoins, international payments, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and institutional blockchain infrastructure. Attention will focus on possible announcements of new services and partnerships related to the XRP ecosystem.

Wednesday, October 28 — U.S. FOMC rate decision and Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement

13:45 GMT: The Bank of Canada (BOC) is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision. The market expects the current rate of 2.25% to remain unchanged. The quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) will also be released at the same time, followed by a press conference with Governor Tiff Macklem at 14:30 GMT. Changes in Canada’s growth and inflation outlook could affect North American bond markets and global monetary policy expectations.
18:00 GMT: The U.S. FOMC is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision and statement. This is one of the most important events of the week. In September, the Fed raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023, and the current target range is 3.75–4.00%. At this meeting, the market is expected to focus not only on the rate decision itself but also on the possibility of further hikes and the Fed’s assessment of inflation.
18:30 GMT: A press conference by the Fed chair is scheduled. Remarks on the future rate path and on inflation and employment could directly affect U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, stocks and crypto markets. More hawkish-than-expected remarks could weigh on risk assets such as BTC, while confirmation of a cautious stance toward additional tightening could improve risk sentiment.
October 28–29: The event is scheduled to take place in Lisbon, Portugal. As a major annual event for the Stellar ecosystem, its key topics include international payments, stablecoins, blockchain use by financial institutions and tokenized assets. Attention will focus on whether new services and partnerships related to XLM are announced.

Thursday, October 29 — U.S. PCE and third-quarter GDP, ECB rate decision and FF unlock

12:30 GMT: The U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is scheduled for release. This is an inflation indicator that the Fed uses importantly in its monetary policy decisions, with particular focus on the core PCE growth rate excluding food and energy. Because it will be released after the previous day’s FOMC results, a higher-than-expected inflation reading could revive expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. Conversely, confirmation of slowing inflation could put downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
12:30 GMT: The advance estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP is scheduled for release. The market expects annualized growth of about 3.0% from the previous quarter. Growth in the second quarter was 2.2%. This is a key indicator for determining whether the U.S. economy is maintaining solid growth despite high interest rates. If the PCE price index and GDP results released at the same time point in different directions, financial-market volatility could increase.
12:30 GMT: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims are scheduled for release. The previous figure was approximately 194,000. As an indicator of whether the labor market is slowing, the figure is likely to attract attention because it will be released immediately after the FOMC and PCE announcements.
13:15 GMT: The European Central Bank (ECB) interest-rate decision is scheduled. The deposit rate currently stands at 2.50%, after being raised by 0.25 percentage points in September. The key issue is whether rates will be raised further amid recently heightened inflationary pressure in the eurozone. An ECB president’s press conference is scheduled for 13:45 GMT, and remarks on the future rate path could affect the euro, European government bond yields and global risk assets.
October 29: Falcon Finance’s FF, approximately 200 million–211 million tokens, are scheduled to be unlocked. The reported amount varies by tracking service, but at the current price it is valued at approximately $20 million–$21 million. The allocation includes tokens for the team, investors, the foundation and the ecosystem, representing an increase of approximately 6% over the existing circulating supply. Depending on whether the tokens actually enter the market and are sold, short-term volatility in FF could increase.

Friday, October 30 — Bank of Japan rate decision, U.S. Employment Cost Index and BTC–ETH month-end options expiry

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision and release its economic and price outlook report**. The exact release time has not been determined. Japan’s policy rate currently stands at 1.25%, after being raised in September. The key issues at this meeting are whether to raise rates further and the pace of future monetary-policy normalization. A more hawkish-than-expected decision or outlook could spur yen appreciation and higher Japanese government bond yields, while also potentially affecting the global yen carry trade and risk assets.
08:00 GMT: Monthly October BTC and ETH options are scheduled to expire. As of October 24, 30-day open interest on major exchanges stood at approximately $12.2 billion for BTC and $1.2 billion for ETH, for a combined total of about $13.4 billion. These figures are combined estimates for Deribit, OKX and Bybit and may change by expiry. If market-maker hedge adjustments and position rollovers become concentrated ahead of the month-end options expiry, short-term volatility in the BTC and ETH spot markets could increase.
Around 10:00 GMT: The preliminary flash estimate of eurozone third-quarter GDP is scheduled for release. Eurozone GDP increased 0.4% quarter on quarter in the second quarter. If Europe’s economic growth rate comes in below expectations, it could affect expectations for the ECB’s future monetary policy and the euro.
12:30 GMT: The U.S. third-quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) is scheduled for release. Employment costs rose 0.9% from the previous quarter in the prior quarter, while the market expects a 0.8% increase this quarter. The indicator includes wages and benefit costs and is important for assessing the sustainability of services inflation. A higher-than-expected figure could stimulate expectations for additional Fed tightening.
October 30: Approximately 166.67 million ZORA tokens are scheduled to be unlocked. The allocation consists of tokens related to the team, investors and the treasury, representing approximately 3.7% of the current circulating supply. At the current price, the amount is valued at approximately $1.1 million. Although the amount itself is not large, the increase in circulating supply and release of investor tokens could increase volatility in the individual asset.
October 30–31: LABITCONF 2026 is scheduled to take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina. As a major Bitcoin event in Latin America, it will cover Bitcoin adoption, payments, financial inclusion, blockchain and AI. Attention will focus on whether new announcements related to the Bitcoin ecosystem are made.

Saturday, October 31 — China manufacturing PMI and global economic trends in focus

01:30 GMT: China’s official October manufacturing and nonmanufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) are scheduled for release. The September manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, slightly above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Changes in new orders, production and export orders will be key in this release. If a slowdown in manufacturing activity is confirmed, expectations for additional stimulus from China could rise, potentially affecting the yuan, Asian risk assets and global commodity markets.
China’s nonmanufacturing PMI and composite PMI are also scheduled for release the same day. These indicators can show whether domestic demand and the services sector are recovering in China and, together with the manufacturing PMI, could affect the global economic outlook.

Weekly Market Summary

This is a highly important week, with monetary policy decisions concentrated among major central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. In particular, the key variables are ① the U.S. FOMC on the 28th, ② the U.S. PCE price index and third-quarter GDP on the 29th, ③ the ECB decision on the 29th and the BOJ rate decision on the 30th, and ④ the approximately $13.4 billion in BTC and ETH options expiring on the 30th.

In September, the Fed raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00%, while the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%. The BOJ also raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September. As major central banks remain alert to inflation risks, this week’s monetary policy decisions and press conferences could have a significant impact on the direction of global government bond yields and the dollar, euro and yen.

In particular, the sequence from the FOMC rate decision at 18:00 GMT on the 28th → the U.S. PCE and GDP releases at 12:30 GMT on the 29th → the ECB rate decision at 13:15 GMT on the 29th → the BOJ rate decision on the 30th is expected to be the key volatility window for financial markets this week.

Within the crypto market itself, the BTC and ETH month-end options expiry at 08:00 GMT on the 30th is the most important event. As of October 24, combined open interest on major exchanges was estimated at approximately $13.4 billion, and hedge adjustments and position unwinding ahead of expiry could increase short-term price volatility. However, a large options expiry in itself does not indicate a direction of either rise or fall.

Among altcoins, the main supply events are the unlocking of approximately 200 million–211 million FF tokens on the 29th and approximately 166.67 million ZORA tokens on the 30th. In particular, approximately 6% of FF’s current circulating supply is scheduled to be released, making actual inflows to exchanges and potential selling important factors to monitor.

Overall, this week’s crypto market is likely to see price volatility driven less by individual project events than by monetary policy differences among the United States, Europe and Japan, U.S. inflation and growth data, and month-end derivatives position unwinding. In particular, it will be important to see whether the PCE price index released after the FOMC sends a signal consistent with the Fed’s policy direction. With the BOJ rate decision and the large BTC and ETH options expiry occurring as well, volatility could persist through the end of the week.

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