Fed remarks, the U.S.-China summit and a large options expiry in focus
※ All times are in GMT+0 (UTC)
Monday, September 21 — China LPR announcement, EU Pontes goes live
- At around 01:00 GMT, China will announce its loan prime rates (LPR). The market expects the one-year rate to remain at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%. The strength of China’s economic stimulus could affect expectations for Asian risk assets and global liquidity.
- In Europe, Pontes, the Eurosystem’s distributed ledger technology (DLT) settlement infrastructure, is scheduled to go live. Pontes connects private DLT platforms with the Eurosystem’s TARGET services, enabling tokenized financial assets to be settled in central bank money. Rather than being a short-term catalyst for coin prices, it is an event worth watching over the medium to long term because it connects traditional financial markets with the tokenized-asset market.
September 22–23 — Fed remarks and global PMIs
- At least 10 public remarks by Fed officials are scheduled this week. New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Fed Governor Michael Barr are among those scheduled to appear in succession. The key question is whether the remarks offer clues as to whether last week’s rate hike was a one-off adjustment or the beginning of an additional tightening cycle.
- September 23: Preliminary September S&P Global PMIs for major economies, including the United States, will be released. If economic activity is stronger than expected and price pressures also rise, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could increase, weighing on risk assets including BTC. Conversely, confirmation of signs of an economic slowdown could reduce expectations for additional rate hikes.
- September 23: BitMEX, once the world’s largest cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, will end its trading services at 1 p.m. Korea time. Remaining positions will be forcibly settled at the time of closure. Although it is unlikely to have a direct impact on the market as a whole, it is significant in the history of the crypto derivatives market.
Thursday, September 24 — U.S. employment data and the U.S.-China summit
- September 24, 12:30 GMT: The United States will release weekly initial jobless claims. At 14:00 GMT, August new home sales will be released. Coming shortly after the FOMC, a significant deviation in labor-market or economic data from expectations could affect the crypto market through U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
- September 24: U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a summit in Washington. The two sides are expected to discuss an extension of the tariff truce, rare-earth supplies, AI and trade issues. Depending on the outcome, U.S. equities, the dollar and Treasury yields could move, potentially affecting the crypto market indirectly.
- September 24: Monetary policy decisions are scheduled from several central banks, including those of Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.
Friday, September 25 — The week’s biggest volatility window
- September 25, 08:00 GMT: Deribit’s third-quarter BTC and ETH options will expire. As of September 19, open interest for contracts expiring on the 25th stood at approximately $15.4 billion for Bitcoin and $2 billion for Ethereum, for a combined total of approximately $17.4 billion. Because market makers’ hedge adjustments and position rollovers could become concentrated ahead of the expiry, short-term volatility in the spot market could increase.
- September 25, 12:30 GMT: U.S. August durable goods orders will be released, followed at 14:00 GMT by the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment reading. The preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8, while one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6%, meaning changes in the final figures could also affect the bond market.
- A large token unlock for Plasma (XPL) is scheduled for September 25. One-third of the 2.5 billion XPL allocated to the Plasma team and investors will unlock one year after the mainnet launch. The two allocations together amount to approximately 1.67 billion XPL, or about 16.7% of the initial total supply. Some tracking services, which also include regular ecosystem unlocks, are currently counting approximately 1.76 billion XPL as being released that day. This does not mean the tokens will actually be sold, but the possibility of a substantial amount of new circulating supply warrants attention to XPL price volatility.
ETHTokyo 2026 runs from September 19 to 27. ETHGlobal Tokyo is taking place from September 25 to 27. As these events concentrate developer and project announcements, new products or partnerships could be announced by Ethereum and some L2 and DeFi projects.
This week’s market summary
This week does not include an exceptionally large economic indicator, such as CPI, PCE or the employment report, capable of determining the market’s direction all at once. In particular, the U.S. August PCE price index will be released on September 30, not this week.
Instead, following the Fed’s rate hike last week, the key sequence is① Fed remarks that could indicate the possibility of additional rate hikes, ② global PMIs on September 23, ③ the U.S.-China summit on September 24, and ④ the approximately $17.4 billion BTC and ETH options expiry on September 25.
Accordingly, this week’s crypto market warrants attention not to any single day’s indicator, but to the way volatility may develop as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, expectations for additional Fed tightening, and the unwinding of derivatives positions on Friday overlap.
Column notice: This article contains the author’s personal views and market analysis and may differ from Coinmax News’s official position. The content is for informational purposes and is not intended as an investment solicitation or investment advice.