An analysis has found that the widely held belief that Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto holds approximately 1.1 million bitcoins is merely an estimate based on specific patterns in early mining activity, rather than direct proof of ownership. Although blockchain records confirm the presence of a particular mining entity, it is difficult to definitively identify those assets as Satoshi’s personal holdings, the analysis noted.
The claim originated in 2013 from a distinctive mining pattern identified in early Bitcoin blocks by blockchain researcher Sergio Damian Lerner. Through this trace, known as the Patoshi pattern, a single miner was estimated to have mined approximately 1.1 million bitcoins. The possibility that this miner was the same person as Satoshi has been raised because some coins directly transferred from Satoshi to early users were linked in part to the pattern. However, this is an inference based on circumstantial evidence, and no direct evidence has been confirmed.
According to a reanalysis by blockchain analytics firm Bitquery of the first 54,316 blocks, estimates of the amount mined also varied substantially depending on the criteria applied. Under a strict application of the pattern, the estimated holdings fall below 900,000 bitcoins, while the broadest criteria raise the estimate to approximately 1.17 million. The widely cited figure of 1.1 million is therefore an estimate with a certain margin of error, rather than a confirmed asset total.
Some observers suggested that Satoshi’s wallet may have awakened after 600 bitcoins that had remained unmoved for 16 years were transferred externally. However, no clear connection between those coins and the Patoshi mining output has been established. The prevailing assessment is that on-chain data can prove only the movement history of transactions; it can never determine whether the entity that mined the coins at the time and the person currently controlling the private keys are Satoshi himself.