U.S. investment bank TD Cowen raised its Bitcoin price forecast for 2026 to $109,000 but kept its price target for Strategy at $260, citing dilution concerns.
U.S. investment bank TD Cowen significantly raised its Bitcoin price forecast while maintaining its target price for Strategy, the publicly listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, formerly known as MicroStrategy. The analysis indicates that despite expectations for asset value to rise as Bitcoin appreciates, dilution resulting from large-scale capital raising is limiting shareholder value.
In its latest research report, TD Cowen raised its projected Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 to approximately $109,000, from the $97,500 it had forecast in early September. It also presented a long-term bullish outlook, saying Bitcoin could reach $280,000 by 2029. This is above the $80,000-$90,000 range expected by some in the market for the fourth quarter and reflects an assessment that places weight on the potential for value appreciation over the medium to long term.
For Strategy shares, however, it maintained its existing $260 price target along with a “Buy” rating. The TD Cowen analyst team, including Lance Vitanza, pointed out that while higher Bitcoin prices are clearly a key driver of Strategy’s earnings potential, stock dilution arising during the expansion of its capital structure, along with financial obligations such as dividend and interest payments, is offsetting EPS growth.
Strategy has expanded its capital base by issuing common stock, convertible bonds and preferred shares to purchase additional Bitcoin. However, the increase in its share count creates a structural burden: gains in Bitcoin’s price cannot be fully transferred to net asset value per share. Strategy’s stock is currently trading around $150, meaning TD Cowen’s $260 target implies approximately 73% upside. However, the result is interpreted as reflecting a cautious view that the stock’s gains may be limited relative to Bitcoin’s own upward momentum.