Bitcoin could serve as a leading indicator in a future market downturn, just as it led the rise in risk assets, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecast.
McGlone analyzed that Bitcoin, which emerged in 2009, has led gains in risk assets during periods of expanding liquidity, but may now instead lead a decline. Comparing the performance of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, he argued that risk assets could trend lower in 2026.
He also pointed out that, while U.S. stocks are showing high valuations and low volatility, the midterm elections, inflation and the interest-rate environment could increase market volatility.
McGlone recently said that major assets such as cryptocurrencies and gold are heavily dependent on stock-market movements, describing them as “stock puppets.” He predicted that if the stock market declines, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin may also find it difficult to sustain an independent upward trend.