FOMC minutes, ISM services, TOKEN2049 and major token unlocks in focus
※ All times are in GMT+0 (UTC)
Monday, October 5 — U.S. ISM services, ENA and ASTER unlocks
- 14:00 GMT: The U.S. September ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release. The August services PMI came in at 55.4. If services-sector activity, along with employment and price indexes, proves strong, it could raise expectations of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and affect U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
- Ethena’s ENA token is scheduled to unlock. Multiple token-unlock aggregators list a large ENA token release for October 5. The increase in supply could heighten ENA’s short-term volatility.
- A major ASTER token unlock is also scheduled for the same day. Some aggregators estimate it at approximately $500 million, making it a notable event among this week’s altcoin supply events. However, the size of token unlocks may vary depending on the price and aggregation methodology.
- TOKEN2049 Week will take place in Singapore from October 5 to 11. A large number of Web3 and digital-asset-related events are scheduled to take place ahead of the main event.
Tuesday, October 6 — U.S. trade balance
- 12:30 GMT: The U.S. August trade balance is scheduled for release. Although it is less important than this week’s key indicators, a major surprise large enough to alter market expectations for recent U.S. growth and the direction of the dollar could also affect risk assets.
Wednesday, October 7 — FOMC minutes, Indian monetary policy and the opening of TOKEN2049
- 18:00 GMT: The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes of the September 15
–16 FOMC meeting. At the time, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00%. The key issue for markets is how strongly officials assessed the need for additional rate hikes and the risks of inflation. - Expectations for an additional rate hike in October have recently declined after the U.S. August PCE price index rose 3.4% year over year, coming in below expectations. If the minutes are interpreted as more hawkish than expected, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could rise, potentially weighing on risk assets such as BTC. Conversely, a cautious stance toward additional tightening could produce the opposite direction.
- TOKEN2049 Singapore will be held on October 7–8 at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. Approximately 25,000 people, more than 7,000 companies and over 300 speakers are expected to participate, including prominent crypto figures such as Vitalik Buterin, Hyperliquid’s Jeff Yan and Arthur Hayes. Attention will be focused on the possibility of project-specific announcements involving new services, investments and partnerships.
Thursday, October 8 — U.S. jobless claims and TOKEN2049 Institutional
- 12:30 GMT: The U.S. weekly initial jobless claims report is scheduled for release. Initial claims previously stood at 197,000, while the four-week moving average was around 200,000. If the labor market remains stronger than expected, it could increase the possibility of additional tightening by the Federal Reserve.
- TOKEN2049 Institutional will also take place on the second day of TOKEN2049. This separate institutional event brings together senior figures from global financial institutions and the digital-asset industry, with discussions scheduled on the participation of banks, asset managers, sovereign wealth funds and trading firms in the digital-asset market.
Friday, October 9 — U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
- 14:00 GMT: The preliminary October U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled for release. Markets are likely to focus not only on consumer sentiment but also on one-year and five-year inflation expectations. If inflation expectations come in higher than expected, they could fuel expectations of higher U.S. Treasury yields and additional tightening by the Federal Reserve.
- This week’s BTC and ETH options are in a typical weekly expiration period following the large quarter-end expiration. Based on what is currently known, there is no exceptionally large BTC or ETH expiration event comparable to the approximately $18 billion quarterly options expiration on September 25.
Saturday, October 10 — Major RAIN unlock
- Approximately 37.2 billion RAIN tokens are scheduled to unlock. According to Tokenomics.com, the release represents approximately 3.2% of the total supply and is valued at around $480 million at the current price. The dollar value may fluctuate with the price, and this is one of the largest individual token supply events in the latter part of this week.
This week’s market summary
The key macroeconomic events this week are ① the U.S. ISM Services PMI on October 5, ② the September FOMC minutes on October 7, ③ U.S. initial jobless claims on October 8 and ④ the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations on October 9. In particular, with uncertainty over whether the Fed will raise rates further after hiking rates in September, the combination of the FOMC minutes and services-sector prices and inflation expectations could move U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
In the crypto industry, TOKEN2049 Singapore on October 7–8 is the biggest event of the week. With more than 25,000 attendees expected at the large-scale event, announcements of new services and partnerships from major exchanges, protocols and institutions could be concentrated there.
On the token-supply side, attention is focused on the ENA and ASTER unlocks on October 5 and the RAIN unlock on October 10. In particular, RAIN is listed at approximately 37.2 billion tokens, worth around $480 million at its current value, and could become a volatility factor for the individual altcoin.
Overall, this is not a week with exceptionally large CPI or employment reports. However, whether the sequence from Monday’s ISM services report to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Thursday and Friday’s labor-market and inflation-expectations indicators changes market expectations for the Fed’s October rate decision is expected to be a key variable for the crypto market, including BTC.