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Key Events for the Crypto Market This Week – First Week of November

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U.S. employment report, U.K. and Australian rate decisions, and midterm elections in focus… Ethereum Devcon 8 and major token unlocks also key variables

※ All times are in GMT+0 (UTC)
※ Schedule: November 2–8, 2026

Monday, November 2 — U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and China Manufacturing Activity Indicators

  • 01:45 GMT: China’s October private-sector manufacturing PMI is expected to be released. The indicator provides insight into economic conditions among China’s small and medium-sized enterprises and export-oriented manufacturers. If manufacturing activity is weaker than expected, it could affect expectations for additional Chinese stimulus, the yuan, and Asian risk assets. The release time requires final confirmation based on the existing schedule.
  • 15:00 GMT: The U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release. The September manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, while the market expects 54.7 for October. Changes in the manufacturing prices index, new orders, and employment index will be particularly important. If stronger-than-expected economic activity and elevated price pressures are confirmed at the same time, they could push U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher, weighing on risk assets such as BTC.
  • 16:15 GMT: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to participate in a public discussion. As this is the first week since the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at the October FOMC meeting, attention will focus on whether he comments on the future rate path and inflation.
  • 19:00 GMT: The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is scheduled for release. The data provides insight into U.S. banks’ lending standards for businesses and households, as well as loan demand. If it shows that credit supply has contracted significantly more than expected, it could affect U.S. financial conditions and sentiment toward risk-asset investments.
  • November 2: Approximately 93.75 million ENA tokens from Ethena are scheduled to be unlocked. The allocation is related to core contributors and was estimated at approximately $18 million based on the October 31 price. Depending on whether the tokens actually flow into exchanges and are sold, short-term volatility in ENA could increase.

Tuesday, November 3 — Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, U.S. JOLTS, midterm elections, and the opening of Devcon 8

  • 03:30 GMT: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision. Australia’s current policy rate is 4.60%, after a 0.25 percentage-point hike last September. The key focus at this meeting will be whether the RBA raises rates again and its outlook for inflation. The monetary policy statement will also be released at the same time, followed by Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 04:30 GMT. A more hawkish-than-expected decision could affect the Australian dollar and global bond markets.
  • 15:00 GMT: U.S. September JOLTS job openings are scheduled for release. The indicator provides insight into labor demand and hiring and quitting trends in the U.S. labor market. As a key data point for assessing labor-market supply and demand ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report on the 6th, higher-than-expected job openings could stimulate expectations for additional Fed tightening.
  • November 3: The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled to take place. All seats in the House of Representatives and some Senate seats will be contested. Depending on the election results, the future legislative environment for fiscal policy, taxation, and financial regulation could change, while short-term volatility in risk assets such as U.S. stock-index futures and the dollar could increase during the vote-counting process. The timing of vote counting and result announcements varies by state.
  • Devcon 8 is scheduled to be held in Mumbai, India, from November 3 to 6. It is a major global developer event for the Ethereum ecosystem, attended by researchers and developers including Vitalik Buterin. Key topics include Ethereum scaling, security, privacy, DeFi, account abstraction, and real-world use cases. Attention will focus on possible announcements regarding the technical roadmaps and new services of ETH and major L2 projects.
  • November 3: Kite’s KITE token is scheduled to be unlocked. Some tracking services estimate the amount at approximately 800 million tokens, but the quantity and allocation recipients differ among other tracking agencies, so the exact unlock amount requires further confirmation. If a large increase in supply materializes, it could affect KITE’s short-term supply-demand balance and price volatility.

Wednesday, November 4 — U.S. ADP private employment and ISM Services PMI

  • 13:15 GMT: U.S. October ADP private employment is scheduled for release. Private-sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, and the market expects an increase of approximately 75,000 in this release. The indicator provides insight into hiring trends among private companies ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report two days later. If a larger-than-expected slowdown in employment is confirmed, it could put downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. However, ADP and government employment statistics use different methodologies, so their results may differ.
  • 15:00 GMT: The U.S. October ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release. It is an important U.S. economic indicator this week, along with the employment report. The September services PMI came in at 54.9, while the market expects 54.8 for October. With the previous services prices index at a high level of 74.0, the key issue will be whether price pressures persist. If services activity and prices are both strong, expectations for additional Fed rate hikes could rise; conversely, if both activity and the prices index slow, this could be favorable for risk assets.
  • The U.S. September trade balance is also scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT that day. However, in the crypto market, ADP employment and the ISM Services PMI are expected to be more important than the trade balance.

Thursday, November 5 — Bank of England rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, and Fed officials’ remarks

  • 12:00 GMT: The Bank of England (BOE) is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision and release its monetary policy report. The current U.K. policy rate is 3.75%, while some market forecasts reflect the possibility of a hike to 4.00%. With rising energy prices and inflationary pressures persisting, the key focus will be whether the BOE raises rates again and the direction of monetary policy going forward. A more hawkish-than-expected decision could push U.K. gilt yields and the pound higher and could also affect global risk assets.
  • 13:30 GMT: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims are scheduled for release. Initial claims were approximately 194,000 in the previous release. As an indicator of layoffs in the U.S. labor market, the data could affect employment expectations ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report the following day. Preliminary U.S. third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs are also scheduled for release at the same time.
  • 13:50 GMT: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is scheduled to participate in a public discussion. At 14:10 GMT, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is also scheduled to take part in a conversation. If Fed officials comment on the labor market and inflation after the policy rate was left unchanged at the October FOMC meeting, their assessments could affect expectations for future rates.

Friday, November 6 — U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and BTC and ETH options expiration

  • 08:00 GMT: Deribit BTC and ETH weekly options are scheduled to expire. This is the standard Friday options-expiration time and a weekly expiration rather than a month-end or quarter-end expiration. If open interest before expiration is concentrated at particular strike prices, short-term volatility could increase as market makers adjust hedges and close positions. However, no market impact on the same scale as a major month-end options expiration has been confirmed, and the final open-interest amount requires reconfirmation shortly before expiration.
  • 13:30 GMT: The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release. It is the most important economic indicator of the week. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, while the unemployment rate was 4.2%. The market expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by approximately 65,000 in this release, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. In addition to the payroll increase and unemployment rate, attention should also be paid to the growth rate of average hourly earnings.
  • If employment is stronger than expected and wage growth is also high, the possibility of additional Fed tightening could come into focus, pushing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher and weighing on risk assets such as BTC. Conversely, if employment slows and wage pressures ease, expectations for rate hikes could decline. However, if employment is excessively weak, risk assets could also weaken amid concerns about an economic recession.
  • 14:10 GMT: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to make public remarks. As this comes immediately after the employment report, attention will focus on whether he comments on the U.S. labor market and the future rate path.
  • Devcon 8 is also scheduled to conclude that day. Announcements concerning technological development and scaling in the Ethereum ecosystem, privacy, and institutional adoption could affect ETH and related projects going forward.

Weekly Market Summary

This week is concentrated with U.S. employment data and monetary-policy decisions by the U.K. and Australian central banks. In particular, the key variables are ① the RBA rate decision and U.S. JOLTS on November 3, ② ADP employment and the ISM Services PMI on November 4, ③ the BOE rate decision on November 5, and ④ the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on November 6.

On October 28, the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, while two of the 12 voting members argued for a 0.25 percentage-point hike. The Fed assessed that economic activity was maintaining strong expansion, but inflation remained elevated. Accordingly, it is important to see how this week’s manufacturing and services PMIs and employment data change expectations for additional rate hikes.

In particular, the sequence from ADP employment at 13:15 GMT on November 4 → the ISM Services PMI at 15:00 GMT on November 4 → the BOE rate decision at 12:00 GMT on November 5 → the nonfarm payrolls report at 13:30 GMT on November 6 could become the main period of volatility in financial markets this week.

Within the crypto market itself, Devcon 8 from November 3 to 6 is the most important industry event. As Ethereum core developers and researchers will participate, attention should be paid to technical roadmaps and new announcements from ETH and major L2 and DeFi projects. On the token-supply side, the ENA unlock on November 2 and KITE unlock on November 3 are areas of interest, while KITE requires confirmation of the actual unlock amount because tracking agencies report different quantities.

The U.S. midterm elections are also scheduled for November 3, so short-term volatility in U.S. financial markets resulting from the vote-counting process and the outcome should also be considered. However, the election result itself does not determine whether BTC rises or falls, and the actual market reaction is expected to require monitoring movements in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and stock-index futures together.

Overall, the key variable for the crypto market this week is how resilient the U.S. labor market remains after last week’s FOMC rate decision to keep rates unchanged. With the monetary-policy decisions of the U.K. and Australia, the U.S. midterm elections, and Ethereum Devcon 8 occurring at the same time, volatility driven by both macroeconomic factors and individual project issues could emerge simultaneously.

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