U.S. CPI, PPI, retail sales and Fed chair’s remarks in focus…IMF World Economic Outlook and ARB unlock also potential variables
※ All times are GMT+0 (UTC)
Monday, October 12 — IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings begin; U.S. bond markets closed
- The IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are scheduled to take place in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 12 to 18. More than 15,000 officials from central banks, governments and international financial institutions across 191 countries are expected to attend. Key agenda items include global growth, inflation, government debt and financial-market stability. Particular attention should be paid to how policymakers in major economies assess the recent rise in international oil prices and sharp increases in global government bond yields.
- U.S. bond markets are scheduled to close for the Columbus Day federal holiday. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will operate normally. With liquidity in the U.S. Treasury cash market reduced while the crypto market continues trading 24 hours a day, this could affect short-term price volatility.
- Pump.fun is scheduled to unlock approximately 6.88 billion PUMP tokens. Some token-tracking services estimate the value at about $43.3 million. The tokens are associated with the team and early investors, and the actual short-term price volatility of PUMP could depend on whether they are sold into the market.
- The Bitcoin developer event TABConf 8 will be held in Atlanta, U.S., from October 12 to 15. Discussions are expected to focus on the Bitcoin protocol, application development and technical improvements.
Tuesday, October 13 — IMF World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report released
- 02:00 GMT: A press conference is scheduled concerning the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook (WEO). Markets will focus on global growth and growth forecasts for major economies, as well as the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. A key issue is how the IMF assesses the impact of recent energy-price increases and expanding government debt on the global economy. A downward revision to growth forecasts or an upward revision to inflation projections could affect investor sentiment toward global risk assets.
- 03:15 GMT: A press conference is scheduled concerning the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Key topics include risks in global bond markets and financial institutions, leverage and instability in asset prices. The report also includes a separate chapter analyzing the opportunities and risks of financial-asset tokenization, making it worth watching for its implications for the connection between traditional finance and crypto markets.
- 07:45 GMT: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak publicly on AI at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi, India. Markets will watch for any comments on the effects of increased AI investment on economic growth, productivity and inflation.
- DC Fintech Week 2026 will take place in Washington, D.C., U.S., from October 13 to 16. Key topics include digital assets, stablecoins, financial regulation, AI and payments infrastructure. Attention will focus on comments from financial authorities and industry officials, as well as potential announcements concerning crypto adoption by institutional finance.
Wednesday, October 14 — U.S. CPI, China inflation and trade data, Fed Beige Book
- 01:30 GMT: China’s September consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are scheduled for release. The market expects CPI growth of about 1.1% year on year and PPI growth of about 4.4%. If China’s inflationary pressure proves stronger than expected, it could affect Chinese monetary policy and Asian financial markets.
- 03:00 GMT: China’s September trade balance and import-export data are scheduled for release. The market expects a trade surplus of about $114.5 billion. As indicators of China’s export growth and global trade flows, significant deviations from expectations could affect the yuan and Asian risk assets.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is scheduled to announce its October monetary policy decision. All 10 economists surveyed by Reuters expect additional tightening. Singapore conducts monetary policy primarily through the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), rather than a conventional policy rate. The decision could serve as an indicator of the direction of inflation and monetary policy in Asia.
- 12:30 GMT: The U.S. September consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for release. It is one of the most important economic indicators of the week. August CPI rose 3.4% year on year and 0.4% month on month, while core CPI rose 2.4% year on year. This release will focus on how much the rise in energy prices has been reflected in headline inflation and whether upward pressure on core inflation has expanded. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expectations of further Fed rate hikes could strengthen, potentially leading to increases in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, and weakness in risk assets such as BTC.
- 18:00 GMT: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is scheduled for release. The report compiles economic, employment, inflation and business-activity trends across the 12 Federal Reserve districts. Ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, it provides insight into the Fed’s assessment of regional inflation and employment conditions.
Thursday, October 15 — U.S. PPI and retail sales in focus; expectations for further Fed tightening
- 12:30 GMT: The U.S. September producer price index (PPI) is scheduled for release. August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, and the market will focus on how persistent price pressure at the production stage remains. If both CPI and PPI come in higher than expected, concerns about prolonged inflation and expectations of further Fed tightening could intensify.
- 12:30 GMT: U.S. September retail sales are scheduled for release. August retail sales were recorded as rising 1.2% month on month. If U.S. consumption remains stronger than expected, recession concerns could ease, but this could also raise expectations for rate hikes. Conversely, evidence of slowing consumption could affect growth forecasts and rate expectations.
- 12:30 GMT: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims are scheduled for release. The previous reading was 197,000, remaining below 200,000 for four consecutive weeks. With employment growth slowing while layoffs remain low, it will be necessary to assess whether the labor market is weakening further.
- Starknet is scheduled to unlock approximately 127 million STRK, while Sei is scheduled to unlock approximately 97.8 million SEI tokens. The allocations are categorized as relating to contributors and investors, and to the team and investors, respectively. Depending on the amount that enters the market, short-term volatility in the individual altcoins could increase.
Friday, October 16 — Fed chair’s remarks, U.S. industrial production and BTC options expiry
- 03:30 GMT: A public conversation between Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is scheduled. It will take place at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, with attention on any comments about the U.S. economy, global financial markets and monetary policy. In particular, if the Fed chair assesses the CPI, PPI and retail-sales results released by the previous day, it could affect U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar and BTC prices.
- 08:00 GMT: Deribit’s BTC and ETH weekly options expiry is scheduled. This is a regular weekly expiry rather than a month-end or quarter-end expiry. However, if open interest is concentrated at key strike prices immediately before expiry, market-maker hedge adjustments and position unwinding could increase short-term volatility. The expiry size and maximum pain price should be reconfirmed shortly before expiry.
- 12:30 GMT: U.S. September import and export price indexes are scheduled for release. The data will show how much the rise in international oil prices and changes in trade prices are being reflected in U.S. import prices.
- 13:15 GMT: U.S. September industrial production and capacity utilization are scheduled for release. These indicators show production activity in manufacturing and mining, and could affect market assessments of economic expansion and inflationary pressure.
- Arbitrum is scheduled to unlock approximately 92.7 million ARB tokens. Some tracking services estimate the value at about $16.9 million. Token unlock tracker Tokenomist also shows the unlock scheduled for the 16th. Depending on the amount actually entering circulation and being sold, it could affect the price of ARB.
October 17–18 — IMF Annual Meetings conclude; CRO unlock
- 05:30 GMT on the 17th: A press conference of the IMF International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) is scheduled. This event will provide insight into major economies’ joint assessment of the global economy and financial-market stability, as well as policy direction. The IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are scheduled to conclude on the 18th.
- 17th: Cronos is scheduled to unlock approximately 1.17 billion CRO tokens. Some tracking services estimate the value at about $73.8 million. The tokens are associated with a strategic reserve, and depending on whether they actually enter the market, they could affect CRO’s short-term price volatility.
This Week’s Market Summary
This is an important week, with key U.S. inflation and consumer indicators being released together. In particular, the key variables are ① U.S. CPI on the 14th, ② PPI and retail sales on the 15th, ③ the Fed chair’s remarks on the 16th, and ④ the IMF World Economic Outlook and global financial-market announcements from the 13th to the 17th.
U.S. August CPI rose 3.4% year on year, while market concerns about inflation have increased amid the recent rise in international oil prices and sharp increases in global government bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.243% on October 9, and volatility in yields and the dollar could expand again this week depending on the inflation data.
In particular, the period running from CPI at 12:30 GMT on the 14th → PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT on the 15th → the Fed chair’s remarks at 03:30 GMT on the 16th is expected to be the most important volatility window for the crypto market this week. If inflation is higher than expected and consumption is also strong, expectations for further rate hikes could strengthen. Conversely, if inflation is seen to be slowing, an environment favorable to risk assets could emerge.
Within the crypto market itself, the PUMP unlock on the 12th, STRK and SEI unlocks on the 15th, the ARB unlock on the 16th and the CRO unlock on the 17th are the major supply events. CRO and PUMP in particular have relatively large amounts scheduled for release, so attention should be paid to short-term changes in supply and demand for the individual assets. However, a token unlock does not necessarily lead directly to market selling; the actual circulating supply and exchange inflows are important.
Overall, the direction of the crypto market this week is likely to be determined less by individual project events than by how U.S. inflation and consumer data alter expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Alongside the IMF’s outlook for global growth and financial stability and the policy direction of major central banks, movements in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar and international oil prices are expected to be key variables for BTC and altcoin markets.