China’s GDP, Bank of Korea rate decision and global PMIs in focus… ZRO and XPL token unlocks also a factor
※ All times are in GMT+0 (UTC)
Monday, October 19 — China’s Q3 GDP, Canada’s CPI and Money20/20
- 02:00 GMT: China’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and September industrial production and retail sales figures are scheduled for release. The market expects third-quarter GDP growth of approximately 4.4% year on year. Growth is forecast to improve slightly from 4.3% in the previous quarter, but attention will be focused on the actual results as weak domestic demand and a slowdown in the property market persist in China. If growth comes in below expectations, expectations for additional stimulus from China could rise, potentially affecting the yuan, Asian risk assets and expectations for global liquidity.
- 12:30 GMT: Canada’s September consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for release. August CPI previously rose 3.0% year on year. In this release, the key points will be how much the rise in energy prices was reflected in consumer prices and how core inflation changed. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could raise expectations for additional tightening by the Bank of Canada and potentially affect global bond markets.
- From the 18th to the 21st in Las Vegas, the United States Money20/20 USA will take place. It is a major financial event attended by global banks, payment companies, fintech firms, and digital asset companies. This year, stablecoin payments, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and institutional blockchain infrastructure are expected to be among the key topics. Attention is focused on the possibility of new announcements related to traditional financial institutions’ adoption of digital assets.
- 20:30 GMT: In Las Vegas, the Ethereum Stablecoin Summit is scheduled to be held. Approximately 300 industry participants are expected to attend, with discussions focusing on Ethereum-based stablecoin payments, tokenized financial markets, institutional infrastructure, and corporate adoption. Attention is focused on whether cooperation among projects related to the Ethereum ecosystem and stablecoins, as well as new service announcements, will be unveiled.
Tuesday, October 20 — China LPR, U.S. housing starts, and major ZRO unlock
- 01:00 GMT: The People’s Bank of China’s October Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is scheduled to be announced. The current one-year LPR is 3.00%, while the five-year LPR stands at 3.50%. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but market assessments of the possibility of additional easing going forward may vary depending on China’s GDP and domestic demand indicators released the previous day. Expectations for monetary easing in China could affect Asian financial markets and global investor sentiment toward risk assets.
- 05:33 GMT: Approximately 23.63 million LayerZero ZRO tokens unlocked Scheduled. According to DefiLlama, this represents approximately 5.9% of the current circulating supply, worth about $44 million based on the October 17 price. Approximately 10.63 million tokens are scheduled to be allocated to core contributors and approximately 13 million to strategic partners. Some tracking services are counting a larger amount due to differences in allocation categories, but attention should be paid to short-term supply and demand dynamics, as this unlock is centered on allocations to early insiders. The entire amount unlocked will not necessarily result in market selling.
- 12:30 GMT: United States September housing starts and building permits Scheduled for release. In the U.S. housing market, high mortgage rates and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on conditions. If housing starts and permits decline significantly more than expected, concerns about the impact of high interest rates on the real economy could intensify, potentially affecting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Wednesday, October 21 — U.K. CPI, Assessing Global Inflationary Pressure
- 06:00 GMT: Release of the U.K. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) Scheduled for release. The official inflation indicator published by the U.K. Office for National Statistics, it will be important to see how much recent increases in energy prices and inflationary pressure in the services sector have intensified. If inflation comes in higher than expected, expectations for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England (BOE) could strengthen, potentially affecting U.K. gilt yields, the pound and European financial markets.
- At the same time, the U.K. September Producer Price Index (PPI) is also scheduled for release. This indicator helps assess the possibility that rising costs at the production stage will be passed on to consumer prices. As concerns about inflation in major economies have grown recently due to rising international oil prices, it is worth examining CPI and PPI together.
Thursday, October 22 — Bank of Korea Rate Decision · U.S. Jobless Claims · Japan CPI
- Around 01:00 GMT: The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board is scheduled to announce its policy rate decision. South Korea’s current policy rate stands at 3.00% per year, following consecutive rate hikes in July and August. Consumer price inflation stood at 2.9% in September, above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target. At this meeting, the key issues will be whether to raise rates further and the future direction of monetary policy. Depending on the outcome, the decision could affect the won, South Korean government bond yields, and the domestic risk-asset market.
- 12:30 GMT: The U.S. weekly initial jobless claims report is scheduled for release. Recently, growth in new U.S. employment has slowed, while layoffs have remained at low levels. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. If initial jobless claims rise significantly more than expected, concerns about an economic slowdown could intensify. Conversely, if claims remain low, this could lead to interpretations that the Federal Reserve still has room for additional tightening.
- 14:00 GMT: The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September is scheduled for release. The indicator offers insight into future changes in U.S. economic activity and can help assess the impact of high interest rates and rising prices on consumption and investment. However, this week’s market is expected to place greater importance on the PMI and consumer sentiment index due for release the following day.
- 23:30 GMT: Japan’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release. In Japan’s local time, it will be released on the 23rd. The Bank of Japan has recently raised its policy rate to 1.25%, making this inflation data a key input for assessing the possibility of further rate hikes. If core inflation comes in higher than expected, it could spur yen appreciation and a rise in Japanese government bond yields, while potentially affecting the global yen carry trade.
- October 22: Scroll’s SCR token unlock is scheduled. According to a token supply tracking service, tokens related to ecosystem growth are scheduled to be released. Depending on the amount entering circulation and whether tokens flow into exchanges, the unlock could affect SCR’s short-term price volatility.
Friday, October 23 — Global PMIs, U.S. consumer sentiment, and BTC options expiry
- 08:00 GMT: BTC and ETH weekly options expiry Scheduled. DeribitThis corresponds to Deribit’s usual Friday options expiry time. This is a weekly expiry rather than a month-end or quarter-end expiry, and determining whether it is a large-scale expiry will require checking open interest immediately before expiry. If open interest is concentrated at specific strike prices, short-term volatility could increase as market makers adjust hedges and positions are unwound.
- 08:00 GMT: Eurozone preliminary October manufacturing and services PMIs Scheduled for release. The U.K.’s preliminary PMI will follow at 08:30 GMT. Recently, Europe’s economic expansion has remained centered on the services sector, even as rising energy prices have increased cost pressures on businesses. Depending on the PMI activity index and the input-price and selling-price indices, expectations for additional tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England could shift.
- 13:45 GMT: U.S. October S&P Global preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs Scheduled for release. This is one of the most important events among this week’s U.S. economic indicators. With U.S. CPI and PPI both coming in stronger than expected last week, the key points in this PMI report will be services-sector price pressures, new orders, and changes in the employment index. If both activity and price indices come in strongly, this could fuel expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes and push up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. Conversely, if an economic slowdown and easing price pressures are confirmed, the outcome could be favorable for risk assets.
- 14:00 GMT: Final October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the United States is scheduled to be released. The preliminary October Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 46.3 from 48.1 in September. One-year inflation expectations stand at 4.7%, while long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3.5%. If inflation expectations rise further in the final reading, market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s price stability efforts could intensify, potentially affecting U.S. Treasury yields and risk assets such as BTC.
- 23rd: Zora’s approximately 166.7 million ZORA tokens scheduled to be unlocked This represents approximately 1.7% of the total supply, according to a token supply tracking service, and includes allocations for investors, the team, and the foundation. While the dollar value at the current price is not large, the increase in circulating supply and whether the tokens are actually sold could increase volatility in the individual asset.
- From the 23rd to the 24th, in Lugano, Switzerland, Plan ₿ Forum 2026 is scheduled to take place. It is a major Bitcoin event focused on Bitcoin adoption, payment infrastructure, the Lightning Network, and institutional investment. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Blockstream CEO Adam Back, and Lightning Labs CEO Elizabeth Stark are expected to participate as speakers. Attention is focused on whether there will be new announcements related to Bitcoin payments and stablecoins.
Sunday, October 25 — XPL token unlock
- Plasma’s XPL token unlock is scheduled. According to the official tokenomics, approximately 88.89 million tokens allocated for ecosystem growth and approximately 69.44 million monthly unlocks each for the team and investors will be combined, totaling approximately 227.78 million XPLThe scheduled unlock. This is equivalent to approximately 5% of the current circulating supply. Some tracking services are counting only the 88.89 million ecosystem tokens, resulting in a discrepancy in the total unlock amount. As this marks the start of the team’s and investors’ monthly unlocks, attention should be paid to the increase in XPL’s supply and whether the tokens actually flow into the market.
Thisweek’smarketsummary
Unlike last week, this week does not feature the release of exceptionally large inflation indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and PPI, that could directly shock the market, but it is a week packed with China’s GDP, monetary policy decisions by major economies, and global PMI data.
In particular, the U.S. September CPI released last week rose year on year by 3.7%, while PPI rose by 6.3% , indicating that inflationary pressure has expanded again. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% in September, and the market is closely focused on whether it will deliver another hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Starting this week, the Federal Reserve enters the blackout periodahead of the FOMC, restricting Fed officials’ public remarks related to monetary policy from October 17 through 29. Accordingly, this week’s actual economic data releases are likely to be the key factor driving rate expectations, rather than comments from Fed officials.
The key events can be summarized as ① China’s third-quarter GDP on the 19th, ② the UK CPI on the 21st and the Bank of Korea’s base-rate decision on the 22nd, ③ global manufacturing and services PMIs and the US consumer sentiment index on the 23rd, ④ the ZRO token unlock on the 20th and the XPL token unlock on the 25th.
In particular, on Friday, BTC and ETH options expiry at 08:00 GMT → PMIs from major European countries between 08:00 and 08:30 GMT → US PMI at 13:45 GMT → the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 14:00 GMTare scheduled in succession, making this period likely to be a key volatility window in the latter part of the week.
Within the crypto market itself, approximately 23.63 million ZRO on the 20th, approximately 166.70 million ZORA on the 23rd, and approximately 227.78 million XPL on the 25thare scheduled to be unlocked. In particular, the amounts of ZRO and XPL set to be released represent approximately 5.9% and 5%, respectively, of their current circulating supplies, so attention should be paid to volatility in individual altcoins resulting from increased supply. However, an unlock does not necessarily mean immediate market selling; actual exchange inflows and whether holders sell will be important.
Overall, this week’s crypto market will be focused on the USInflationreboundafterthe Fed’sadditionaltighteninghow likely it isto becomeis the key variableto assess. Movements in U.S. Treasury yields and major currencies such as the dollar and yen may vary depending on China’s economic indicators, the monetary policies of major central banks, and global PMI results, which are expected to influence the direction of the crypto market, including BTC.