Glassnode analyzed that Bitcoin is facing selling pressure on the upside while remaining below the average purchase prices of investors who bought over the past two years.
The average purchase price for holders who have held Bitcoin for 6–12 months is estimated at approximately $88,000, while that for holders with a 1–2-year holding period is estimated at around $100,000. These two price levels acted as resistance during Bitcoin’s rise this year.
Realized losses among long-term holders fell by approximately 85% after peaking on August 12. Institutional demand, however, weakened again. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3 billion in net inflows from September 21 to October 6, but posted about $760 million in net outflows after October 7.
Glassnode explained that a sustained return to ETF inflows would be needed to view the trend as a sign of recovering demand. A daily close above $88,000, together with a resumption of ETF inflows, could signal that Bitcoin is absorbing overhead supply. Conversely, if buying support at $80,000 and the ETFs’ average purchase price break down, the True Market Mean at approximately $78,000 could emerge as the next downside price level, Glassnode analyzed.